What Does the Current Job Market Look Like?
Whether we’re active in the job market or not, I’m sure we can all sense this air of economic uncertainty. At a macro level, the job market almost always reflects the larger economy’s sentiments, so in a moment like ours —when fear about future recession is demonstrated by Federal Reserve rate hikes and by comments from business leaders like JP Morgan-Chase’s Jamie Dimon— we should expect hiring practices to change proportionally.
But we want to know the micro correlation: How will those hiring practices affect us? To understand this, it’s important that we arm ourselves with relevant information about our current moment and also about the moments which just preceded it. This way, whether we’re first contacting recruiters or whether we’ve been plotting a big move for some time, we can respond as intelligently as possible to wherever the market moves.
Over the last few weeks, I’ve reached out to various Senior Search professionals in the hopes of understanding of where the job market is now and how its recent past may inform its future. They told me this:
During the first six-to-nine months of 2020, the job market was gripped by the same panic which gripped the economy. Layoffs and hiring freezes were unfortunately common. When we consider that very little non-essential business was taking place at this time, it makes sense that the job market slowed to a crawl. Expansion and hiring were simply unfeasible.
As 2021 progressed and the American economy —aided by therapies and vaccines— adapted to work-life amidst the virus, companies learned to leverage the technologies they had been forced to adopt over the previous year. The proliferation of video-call and team-work software increased confidence in remote employment. This newfound ease in practical hiring, coupled with a need to replace former employees —those laid off, newly-retired, or returned to business school— led to a hyperactive job market. I know many recruiters who could hardly handle the sheer volume of open positions.
So here we are, again in a rather concerning economic moment but one nevertheless informed by recent cycles of despair and recovery. Today’s market is characterized by strong, steady hiring and a low unemployment rate. Employees remain incentivized to seek opportunity. Such things won’t change overnight. We can take solace in that. Nevertheless, it’s worth wondering if companies will begin to rein in their hiring practices in fear of looming economic reports.
We can find some insight about the job market’s evolution from this article in Recruiter.com Magazine, “All You Need to Know About the September 2022 Hiring Trends,” which notes that “Recruiters said that 30% of the roles they are working on are brand new, and the other 70% are existing jobs that they still haven’t found the right hire.” Likely, these unfilled roles are of a more specialized nature, so it’s no wonder companies are prioritizing so-called “Ideal Candidates” to fill them. If, as many expect, the economy does take a downturn, companies staffed with flexible and technically-capabale employees, individuals who can step into a larger variety of roles, will be doing themselves a long-term service.. Clearly, that is seeming more and more a priority.
That said, the effects of this mentality haven’t yet materialized in hiring practices. The job market remains very candidate-friendly. According to the aforementioned article, “The number of candidates who have held two jobs in the past two years also increased by 15% to sit at 54%. The number of candidates who have had three jobs in the past two years is 32%, which means that the Job Hopper market is still very active.” General hiring isn’t as frenzied as it has been for the previous months, but employers are still actively filling roles while they can. That said, if difficult economic conditions do return, and if companies again opt to downsize, it’s usually these employees who are first targeted for layoffs.
My best advice for anyone circling the job market is to remain abreast of economic matters. We already know how modern hiring trends tend to move when the economy takes a hit: layoffs, hiring freezes, a preference for lean and flexible staff. The hard part is critically applying larger macroeconomic trends to our own situations and hiring timelines. If, for instance, you are an entry-level employee unhappy at your current position, best practice might mean aggressively entering the job market now, perhaps supplementing your search with a training bootcamp or certification course to qualify for more technical roles. This may be better than waiting for some “more opportune” moment in the future and ultimately entering a slower job market. And if you truly believe a recession is imminent, then start expanding the kinds of roles you’re considering. Finding a position, proving your value, and picking up organizational knowhow might well be a difference-making decision in a year or so.
If you’ve having trouble navigating this unsteady market, or if you’d like a professional eye to help you examine your individual situation, have no fear! We’re here to guide you! Reach out to me, Nancy, on LinkedIn or at www.idealinterviewco.com/contact.